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Climate Change Induced Trophic Amplification Declines Planktonic Biomass

By: Delaney Reynolds, SRC Intern

Figure 1: A collage of different planktonic organisms (Source: http://planktonchronicles.org/en/episode/plankton/)

Plankton, including phytoplankton and zooplankton, make up 99% of all marine life and form the base of the food web. Phytoplankton undergo photosynthesis, much like plants do, and thus their growth and population size are dependent on availability of nutrients and levels of light. Zooplankton feed upon phytoplankton and thus their population size is partly dependent on phytoplankton populations.

The effects of anthropogenic climate change on phytoplankton and zooplankton populations is widely unknown, but scientists are taking steps to determine what those effects may be.

In a study by the Dynamic Meteorology Laboratory in France, Dr. Lester Kwiatowski took a look at how the trophic amplification of plankton biomass changes based on different models of future climate change, as well as how an amplification of this response may trickle through the food web.

Two different modeling techniques were used in this study: the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth System Models and the Pelagic Interactions Scheme for Carbon and Ecosystem Studies Quota (PISCES-QUOTA) model. The CMIP5 models modeled the trophic interactions between zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass under twenty-first century climate change projections. The PISCES-QUOTA model was used to explore what the mechanisms controlling zooplankton and phytoplankton trophic interactions might be under different climatic conditions.

Figure 2: This figure displays the projected percentage of plankton biomass anomaly by year from 1850 to 2100, as well as according to latitude. All three populations of plankton (phytoplankton, microzooplankton, and mesozooplankton) decrease in biomass; however, it can be concluded that the zooplankton will be much more negatively affected than the phytoplankton. It can also be deduced that in the lower latitudes, where it is warmer, zooplankton will also be more negatively affected than phytoplankton (Lester et al. 2018).

Kwiatowski found that both models projected a decline in both in zooplankton biomass and phytoplankton biomass as a result of climate change, with a moderately larger decrease in zooplankton biomass than phytoplankton biomass. According to the CMIP5 models, phytoplankton biomass is expected to decline by 6.1 ± 2.5% and zooplankton biomass is expected to decline by 13.6 ± 3.0%. The PISCES-QUOTA model split up zooplankton into two groups: microzooplankton and mesozooplankton. This model found that phytoplankton biomass is expected to decline by 8.5%, microzooplankton biomass by 15.4%, and mesozooplankton biomass by 20.6%. Here again, a slightly greater decrease in zooplankton biomass can be found than phytoplankton biomass. The PISCES-QUOTA model also determined that the driving factor affecting the biomass levels was primarily the fact that “primary production decreases in equatorial and subtropical biomes due to stratification-driven reductions in nutrient availability” (Kwiatowski et al., 2018).

Looking at comparisons between carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorous stoichiometry, the discrepancy between phytoplankton and zooplankton can be explained. As a result of climate change, the PISCES-QUOTA model also predicted a decrease in the phytoplankton nitrogen content by 1.1% and phosphorous content by 6.4%, just in the twenty-first century. As zooplankton consume phytoplankton, this decrease of nitrogen and phosphorous in phytoplankton will ultimately lead to a decline in the growth efficiency of zooplankton and a decrease in the overall zooplankton population.

Phytoplankton and zooplankton comprise of the base of the marine food web and also produce about 50% of the earth’s oxygen. Without them, many larger organisms would be heavily impacted. Studies just like this one can help us better understand the future that our delicate food web may face under the threats of climate change and give us insight into how we might be able to combat the probable effects.

Works Cited

Kwiatkowski, L., Aumont, O., & Bopp, L. (2019). Consistent trophic amplification of marine biomass declines under climate change. Global change biology25(1), 218-229.

Investigating the vulnerability of European Seafood Production to Climate Warming

By: Gaitlyn Malone, SRC Intern

As the world’s climate continues to change, economic, social, and environmental changes will undoubtedly occur along with it. One sector that is expected to be economically affected by climate warming is seafood production (Breitburg et al., 2018). Seafood production, which includes both farmed and captured fish, shellfish, and seaweed in marine and freshwater, will experience changes since the warming of an environment has the ability to change both a species’ distribution and life history characteristics (Pecl et al., 2017; Cochrane et al., 2009). Therefore, it is crucial to work towards being able to predict and understand the extent of these changes in order to prepare for the future.

A recent study (Blanchet et al., 2019) examined the effects of climate change on seafood production within each European country in order to identify potential challenges and opportunities within the sectors of marine fisheries, marine aquaculture, and freshwater production. To do so, the researchers combined information on the target species’ temperature preferences, life history characteristics, and production volume to determine their biological sensitivity (BS) and the maximum temperature (Tmax) that they were experiencing. They then determined the adaptive ability of seafood production in each country or sector by determining the number of species that the country/sector exploits and those species’ temperature ranges. A country or sector that exploits a higher number of species will be more likely to adapt in response to climate change. A species with a wide temperature range would also potentially be more adaptable since they are able to withstand a variety of temperatures.

Figure 1: Biological sensitivity index versus the temperature range of each species within the sectors of a) marine fisheries, b) marine aquaculture, and c) freshwater production. The size of the bubbles relates to the total volume produced for each particular species in that sector (Blanchet et al., 2019).

Figure 2: Ranking of each European country’s vulnerability to warming based on their weighted temperature sensitivity and weighted biological sensitivity for each of the three production sectors. The size of the bubbles represents the relative contribution of each country to the total European production volume within that sector (Blanchet et al., 2019).

Overall, seafood production was found to generally be more vulnerable within the marine fisheries and aquaculture sectors. The freshwater sector varied greatly based on country. Within the marine sector, northern countries tended to be more sensitive to warming than southern countries since seafood production in these areas are more dependent on cold-water species with a high BS. Southern countries tended to rely on warmer water species that had a lower BS. The main challenge facing these marine fisheries is due to changes in species distribution. In response to warming, there has been a northward expansion of the range of several species, which in some cases has included a contraction of their southern range. This change in distribution has the ability to affect local fisheries and management, who in southern areas may lose access to their resources, while northern areas may benefit. Aquaculture taking place in temperate zones was also predicted to be at risk from warming conditions, since increasing temperatures have the ability to reduce oxygen levels in the water and increase the metabolic costs for organisms. Disease is also likely to increase in these systems since pathogens may spread more readily. The low amount of species diversity in aquaculture also makes it particularly susceptible to rising temperatures.

Under warming conditions is not impossible to continue producing sustainable seafood, however efforts must be made to adapt to climate change. Therefore, the authors suggest that there must be communication between stakeholders, diversification of exploited species, and transnational cooperation in order to meet these goals.

Work Cited

Blanchet, M.-A., Primicerio, R., Smalas, A., Arias-Hansen, J., Aschan, M. 2019. How vulnerable is the European seafood production to climate warming?. Fisheries Research 209, 251-258.

Breitburg, D., Levin, L.A., Oschlies, A., Gr.goire, M., Chavez, F.P., Conley, D.J., Gar.on, V., et al., 2018. Declining oxygen in the Global Ocean and coastal waters. Science 359 (6371).

Cochrane, K., Young, D.C., Soto, D., Bahri, T., 2009. Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture: overview of current scientific knowledge. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 530, 212.

 Pecl, G.T., Ara.jo, M.B., Bell, J.D., Blanchard, J., Bonebrake, T.C., Chen, I.-C., Clark, T.D., et al., 2017. Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. Science 355.

 

 

Harmful Algal Blooms and Climate Change: Exploring Future Distribution Changes

By: Chris Schenker, SRC Intern

Across the globe, the effects of climate change are manifesting. Due to anthropogenically-induced environmental changes, the geographic occurrence of many species is being altered, and algae is no exception. Under the right environmental conditions, some algal species can cause harmful algal blooms (HABs) which create toxins and produce many harmful side effects. Fisheries are affected by HABs, as are some filter feeding species. Many commercially important bivalves, such as shellfish, retain these harmful chemicals in their tissue for up to six months. This means that one prolonged algal bloom can close coastal aquaculture and fisheries for months at a time, creating negative economic impacts and posing a threat to public health. Vulnerable species and ecosystems are also sensitive to HABs, and one bad event can push a species to extinction or make long lasting ecosystem-wide changes.

Figure 1: Many commercially important species of shellfish are under threat due to harmful algal blooms. (Source: Unsplash.com)

Worldwide, blooms have increased in frequency and impact. Different algal species are affected in different ways by environmental conditions, but it is possible that manmade changes have played a part in this. Many HABs that used to only occur at lower latitudes have crept north in recent years, and in this paper, Townhill et al. (2018) aimed to use species distribution modeling to provide a broad overview for “changing geographic affinity” (p. 1884). Using a high-resolution climate model integrated into global climate model outputs, the authors were able to incorporate a species’ global environmental exposure into its habitat suitability function. The “habitat suitability function” was constructed from data on species occurrence for a number of algal species, with an emphasis placed on variables most believed to affect algal occurrence, such as near bottom and sea surface temperature and salinity, differences between the surface and bottom values for each, and bathymetry. Next, a “relative habitat suitability” score between 0 and 1 was generated by running the data through the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) model which describes hydrographic and bathymetry conditions that a species currently seems to favor. Finally, the model was used to generate predictions of the latitudinal center of a species’ distribution in the near-term (2040-2069) and long-term (2069-2098). The estimates were used to understand how a species general distribution may change from the present.

Figure 2: All species studied are expected to experience a global shift towards the poles. (Townhill et al., 2018)

Every species studied was projected to experience a northward global shift, with most of the change occurring at end of the century. Bathymetry and near bed temperature were found to be the variables with the greatest contribution to model fit. All but three species experienced a northward shift in the Northern European shelf seas, with D. acuta and Gymnodinium catenatum having the greatest at 800-1000 km northwards for mid and end of century. G. catenatum was also predicted to have the largest northwards shift globally with an estimate of more than 700 km.


Figure 3: Alexandrium minutum is predicted to have a southward shift in shelf seas, while the other three species shown are expected to have the greatest northward shift. (Townhill et al., 2018)

Although there are differences in species-specific predictions compared to other studies, the work of Townhill et al. (2018) highlights the need for near- and long-term forecasting to understand the risk of future algal species redistribution. More sophisticated future models will likely lead to better predictions, allowing researchers to stay abreast of ecological trends. However, it is also important to understand that relative suitability helps us understand which species might become more prevalent and therefore need closer monitoring, but it is impossible to predict blooms based on abundance data alone. For that, local and near-term environmental conditions are much more important. Thus, this brand of species distribution modeling is meant to supplement conventional monitoring efforts, not replace them.

Work Cited:

Townhill, B. L., Tinker, J., Jones, M., Pitois, S., Creach, V., Simpson, S. D., Dye, S., Bear, E., and Pinnegar, J. K. Harmful algal blooms and climate change: exploring future distribution changes. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 75: 18821893.

Fading Corals: The Effect of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Coral Reefs

By Konnor Payne, SRC intern

Due to the dramatic ecological changes caused by humans to the Earth, a new period has been named after humans called the Anthropocene. In the Anthropocene, it appears, the next change is to the Earth’s coral reefs. The number one cause of stony coral (Reef-building coral) loss is the warming of waters due to anthropogenic global warming (Causey, 2001; Manzello, 2015). As technology and industry continue to accelerate, the issue of global warming will only worsen and thus the coral reefs shall continue to suffer.

Figure 1. The coral is bleached and has had its zooxanthellae expelled. This can occur to any reef-building coral that is under too much stress from outside influences. The coral is starving without the photosynthetic symbiote and is likely to starve to death. (Source: “KeppelBleaching.” Wikipedia.org, 22 Aug. 2011, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Keppelbleaching.jpg)

Corals are tiny soft-bodied organisms related to sea anemones that build a calcium carbonate skeleton around themselves. Within their bodies is a symbiotic dinoflagellate, called zooxanthellae, that photosynthesizes to provide the corals with organic matter. Bleaching is when a coral colony becomes so overly stressed that the zooxanthellae are expelled resulting in a lack of color. In this bleached state, the coral begins to starve and is likely to die. In the Florida Keys Reef Tract (FKRT) increasing sea surface temperature has led to an increase in the number of major bleaching events (Van Hooidonk et al., 2013), leading to the loss of 40% of stony corals since 1996 causing an ecological shift towards octocorals, macroalgae and sponges (Ruzicka et al., 2013).

In May of 2015 and 2016, researchers excavated coral skeletal cores from the two most critical reef-building corals, Siderastrea sidereal and Pseudodiploria strigose, in the FKRT to examine skeletal density, growth and calcification rates. Using X-rays and a 3D modeling program, (Horos V2.0.2) the layers of coral grown each year could be analyzed accurately pixel by pixel. The researchers found that the skeletal density remained consistent up until the last century, in which overall skeletal density significantly decreased, but extension and calcification rates did not change significantly compared to their respective biological history (Rippe, 2018). Both species of coral have been able to sustain baseline growth rates despite recent bleaching events and chronic ocean warming. This suggests that corals of the subtropical environment are likely to have a buffer to the effects of ocean warming and the underlying cause of reduction in the skeletal density is levels of aragonite saturation in the water (Rippe, 2018). The study suggests that further research into the carbonate chemistry of the FKRT is required to understand how heavily aragonite saturation affects skeletal density.

Figure 2. The coral skeletal core has distinctive bands to distinguish skeletal density, extension and calcification rates over the years. By comparing past to future bands, the anthropogenic effects on the coral can be visually determined. (Source: Felis 2005).

Works Cited

Causey, B. (2001). Lessons learned from the intensification of coral bleaching from 1980–2000
in the Florida Keys, USA. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the Workshop on Mitigating Coral Bleaching Impact through MPA Design. Honolulu, Hawaii.

Felis, Thomas. “Paleoclimatology: Climate Close-Up.” NASA Earth Observatory, 23 Dec. 2005, earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Paleoclimatology_CloseUp/paleoclimatology_closeup_2.php.
Manzello, D. P. (2015). Rapid recent warming of coral reefs in the Florida Keys.
Scientific Reports, 5.

Rippe, John. (2018). Corals sustain growth but not skeletal desnity across the Florida Keys Reef
Tract despite ongoing warming. Primary Research Articles.

Ruzicka, R., Colella, M., Porter, J., Morrison, J., Kidney, J., Brinkhuis, V., … Meyers, M.
(2013). Temporal changes in benthic assemblages on Florida Keys reefs 11 years after the 1997/1998 El Niño. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 489, 125-141.

Van Hooidonk, R., Maynard, J., & Planes, S. (2013). Temporary refugia for coral reefs in a
warming world. Nature Climate Change, 3(5), 508-511.

Gravity of human impacts mediates coral reef conservation gains

By Brenna Bales, SRC intern

Communities around the world depend on coral reefs for their livelihood, for tourism, and for protection against coastal degradation. With an increasing human population comes increasing human impact on these coral reefs and a decrease in the ability of a reef to provide the benefits listed above. Direct human impacts include overfishing, polluting the reef with trash or chemicals, and dredging; however, there are indirect human impacts such as anthropogenic climate change. Greenhouse warming affects ocean temperature which can stress corals (Jokiel 2004), and ocean acidification from carbon uptake can decrease the ability of corals to build limestone foundations (Langdon et al, 2000).

In Cinner et al’s analysis, the magnitude of human impact on of 1,798 tropical reefs in 41 nations/states/territories was described and quantified. In order to quantify this impact, the authors used a social science metric termed “gravity”, which has been used from economics to geography. For the adaptation to an ecological analysis, the gravity of human impact was measured as a function of how large and how far away a population of humans was to a certain coral reef (Figure 1). In each location, the status of reef management ranged from openly fished (little to no management), to highly protected marine reserves where fishing is completely prohibited.

Figure 1. The authors’ interpretation of “gravity” as a function of the population of an area
divided by the time it takes to travel to the reefs squared. (Cinner et al, 2018)

Two expected “conservation gains” (differences in the progress of a coral reef ecosystem when protected versus unprotected) in all regions were analyzed as to how they are influenced by human activity. The first was targeted reef fish biomass (species usually caught in fisheries) and the second was the presence of top predators within the ecosystem. Conservation gains can be beneficial to both people and ecosystems; When the health of a protected coral reef improves, it might drive new recruits and help re-establish other nearby reefs that are fished more. The authors hypothesized that the target conservation gains would decline with increasing gravity in areas where fishing was allowed, but that marine reserves would be less susceptible to these gravity influences.

Analysis of visual fish count data collected from 2004-2013 showed that gravity strongly predicted the outcomes for fish biomass in a reef ecosystem. Biomass in marine reserves showed a less steep decline with increasing impact as compared to openly fished and restricted areas (Figure 2). This was due to an unforeseen relationship between gravity and the age of a marine reserve. In high-gravity areas, older reserves contributed more to fish biomass when compared to low-gravity areas. These older reserves have had more time to recover after periods of high fishing stress. Even in the highest-gravity reserves, fish biomass was about 5 times higher than in openly fished areas. Top predators were only encountered in 28% of the reef sites, and as gravity increased, the chance of encountering a top predator dropped to almost zero. Overall, highly regulated marine reserves in low-gravity situations showed the highest biomass levels, and the greatest chance of encountering a top predator.

Figure 2. Modeled relationships showing reef fish biomass declines with gravity increases by
regulation type. Openly fished (red), restricted (green), and high-compliance marine reserves
(blue). (Cinner et al, 2018)

Four explanations for the decrease of fish biomass and top predator encounters were (i) human impact in the surrounding area of a marine reserve affecting the interior, (ii) poaching effects, (iii) life history traits of top predators making them susceptible to even minimal fishing stress, and (iv) high-gravity reserves being too young or too small for drastic improvement. The fourth explanation was further analyzed, where large versus small reserves were compared. Not surprisingly, larger reserves had higher biomass levels and top predator encounter probabilities. Lastly, the ages of the reserves were examined. The average reserve age was 15.5 years compared to older reserves (29 +/- years), and older reserves had a 66% predicted increase in biomass levels. Analysis of the likelihood of encountering a top predator was less definitive, suggesting high-density areas, no matter the age, reduce this probability greatly.

Ecological trade-offs such as high-gravity reserves being beneficial for conservation gains like reef fish biomass, but not so much for top predators, are important to consider. Top predators can face more fishing stress even in remote areas due to their high price in international markets, such as sharks for their fins, explaining the observed difference in low-gravity fished areas versus low-gravity marine reserves. Overall, when aiming to create an effective marine reserve or even regulations that aid in conservation gains, it is imperative to consider the gravity of human impact in the surrounding areas. How the impacts of gravity can be reduced is critical as populations grow along coastlines and climate change stressors increase as well. Multiple forms of management will most likely provide the most benefit to stakeholders (Figure 3) and the ecosystem.

Figure 3. A fisherman in the town of Paje, Tanzania takes his boat out behind the reef barrier to
catch a meal. Stakeholders are an important part in considering reef management decisions, as
millions of people rely on the reefs for their meals just as this fisherman.
(https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fisherman_in_Paje.jpg)

Works Cited

Langdon, C., Takahashi, T., Sweeney, C., Chipman, D., Goddard, J., Marubini, F., Aceves, H., Barnett, H. and Atkinson, M.J., 2000. Effect of calcium carbonate saturation state on the calcification rate of an experimental coral reef. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 14(2), pp.639-654.

Jokiel, P.L., 2004. Temperature stress and coral bleaching. In Coral health and disease (pp. 401-425). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.

“Climate-driven range shifts of the king penguin in a fragmented ecosystem”: a summary of the effects of anthropogenic climate change on habitat fragmentation through genomic analysis in the king penguin community

By Julia Saltzman, SRC intern

Climate change is a hot topic today, not only in the world of science, but also in the world of politics and policy (Figure 1). Despite this fact, it has not been until recently that scientists have started to study the impacts of climate change on specific species. Because anthropogenic climate change is known to have important consequence across biologic communities, having and understanding of the nature and extent of species’ responses is crucial in modeling policy for effective environmental change (Cristofori Et. Al., 245). In the article, Climate-driven range shifts of the king penguin in a fragmented ecosystem, research is discussed which focuses on the upper-level predator, the king penguin, in one of the most rapidly changing ecosystems on the planet: the sub-Ant-arctic region.

 

Figure 1: global surface temperature in 2017 compared to the 1981-2010 average. High latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were especially warm, though temperatures across most of the planet were warmer than average (red colors). (Source: NOAA Climate.gov map, based on data from NOAA NCEI.)

 

The king penguin exhibits high levels of dispersal, and fragmented distribution. It has been suggested that the remarkably high migration rate among colonies can explain this. In order to test this hypothesis, researchers produced a genome-wide data set (Cristofori Et. Al., 246). including about 35,000 independent polymorphic loci genotyped in 163 individuals from 13 different locations covering most of the king penguin (Figure 2). Following the data collection, it was verified that the long-term relationship between paleohabitat reconstruction and the species’ past demography can be inferred from genomic data. Based upon this paleogenetic reconstruction, which allowed or analysis of location specific genomes, found that heterogeneous environmental changes lead to uncoupled effects on different crucial areas of the king penguins’ habitat.

 

Figure 2: the king penguin, Aptenodytes patagonicus, at first glance appears to be very similar to the emperor penguin, however, it is smaller and completely different genetically. (Source: Wikipedia commons).

 

Although this data gives highly complex insight into the genomic of the king penguin community across boundaries of fragmentation, it can tell scientists and policy makers really good information about the near-future scenarios which can project changes in these penguins’ range and population size. Although some scientists may suggest that the species can evolve overtime to adapt to anthropogenic climate change (figure 3), species fragmentation, and changes in resource partitioning, past data has found that due to the king penguins’ low genetic diversity and long generation time, the species is not expected to undergo any rapid adaptive evolution to new conditions in its range. Because species fragmentation and climate change go hand in hand, not only in the king penguins’ population, but in the overall ecosystem of the earth, this data collection methodology and results can give insight into the effect of habitat fragmentation on species’ niche and genetic diversity. This data can be used collaboratively to help mitigate the effect of anthropogenic fragmentation which happens so frequently in a plethora of ecological niches.

 

Figure 3: From a study of detailed analysis of a recently published Antarctic temperature reconstruction, which combined satellite and ground information using a regularized expectation–maximization algorithm (O’Donnell et al. 2009).

 

Works Cited:

O’Donnell, R., Lewis, N., Mcintyre, S., & Condon, J. (2011). Improved methods for PCA-based reconstructions: Case study using the Steig et al. (2009) antarctic temperature reconstruction. Journal of Climate. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3656.1

Climate Change: Global Temperature | NOAA Climate.gov, 1 Aug. 2018, www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature

Weintraub, Karen. “Largest King Penguin Colony in the World Drops by 90%.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 31 July 2018, www.nytimes.com/2018/07/31/science/king-penguin-decline-antarctica.html.

Cristofari, R., Liu, X., Bonadonna, F., Cherel, Y., Pistorius, P., Le Maho, Y., … Trucchi, E. (2018). Climate-driven range shifts of the king penguin in a fragmented ecosystem. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0084-2

Climate Change and Fish Performance: How can aquatic acidification affect oxygen transport and swim performance?

By Luisa Gil Diaz, SRC intern

Climate change is becoming an ever-more pressing concern. The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has rapidly increased to about 400 ppm in 2015; this is the highest it’s been 800,000 years (Luthi et al., 2008). When we think about the effects these high concentrations have on our earth’s systems, we might only consider the atmosphere and weather patterns. However, it is important to remember that the ocean is the largest carbon sink on earth. We are already starting to see the effects of increased carbon dioxide concentrations, as well as increased partial pressure coming from CO2, in the form of ocean acidification and coral bleaching. However, not much information has been gathered on the effect of increased partial pressure from carbon dioxide (PCO2) on fish metabolic performance, which is an important benchmark of their ability to survive.

Increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 have led to changes in ocean pH (Plumbago AnnualpHChange. Digital image. Wikimedia. N.p., Apr. 2009. Web. 23 Mar. 2018).

Kelly D. Hannan and Jodie L. Rummer’s study is a meta-analysis of the work that has been done on this subject. Data analyzed included both saltwater and freshwater environments. However, it is difficult to predict how rising CO2 concentrations will affect freshwater systems due to their high variability. Overall, it is predicted that increasing CO2 concentrations will affect the calcification rates, growth, reproduction, and immune functioning of organisms. It has been observed that marine and freshwater fish can physiological compensate for extremely high levels of ocean acidification, but behavioral defects have also been observed. Therefore, “these behavioral impairments demonstrate that despite fish being efficient acid-base regulators, they may not be as tolerant to acidosis as previously predicted” (Hannan and Rummer 2018). Acid-base regulation requires energy and can be metabolically taxing. The delivery of oxygen (O2) to tissues can result in maintained or increased aerobic scope across a wide range of teloest species (aerobic scope refers to the total aerobic energy available to an organism above basic maintenance costs for basic life-history processes and can be used as a measure of health). The goal of Hannan and Rummer’s meta-analysis was to see what other mechanisms were used by both freshwater and saltwater fish to combat the effect of increased CO2.

Teleosts are bony fish (Viswhapraba. Puntius Sarana. Digital image. Wikimedia. N.p., Sept. 2011. Web. 23 Mar. 2018).

To begin this meta-analysis, search engines such as Google scholar were used to look up studies using key words such as “teleost”, “Oxygen consumption”, “aerobic scope”, “ocean acidification”, and “Carbon dioxide”. From the results that the search engines generated, all studies that investigated the effect of elevated PCO2 on oxygen uptake in fishes were reviewed. The researchers analyzed the pH range, PCO2 range, the species assessed, the life stage, the length of PCO2 exposure, the ecosystem, and the type of response from each one of the papers to find trends and commonalities. Of the 26 instances where responses to elevated PCO2 , the majority (73.1%) reported no effect on Aerobic scope. 15.3% reported a decrease in aerobic scope and 11.5% reported an increase. These results reinforce the idea that fish are efficient regulators and can withstand pressure from differing pH conditions in their environments. However, it is important to note that the majority of the species analyzed were adult teleosts (bony fish). Furthermore, because the meta-analysis looked at different studies which used different methods, there are gaps in data that make it impossible to get a whole-picture analysis of animal performance and fitness. This lack of holistic information will make it difficult to draw predictions on how fish populations will be affected by ocean acidification in the long term. The majority of animals studied where teleosts, who are known to benefit from the Root effect. Yet, in the elasmobranchs that were included there still seemed to be resistance to changes in Aerobic scope in response to increased PCO2 (Di Santo, 2015, 2016; Green and Jutfelt, 2014). Because it is known that Elasmobranchs (sharks, skates, and rays), do not possess the Root Effect, this suggests that they have different mechanism contributing to their maintained aerobic performance. It is possible that Oxygen uptake levels have a genetic basis. Other gaps in the literature included studies relating to freshwater fish. Predictions regarding how PCO2 will affect the aerobic scope of freshwater fish are limited and variable and this is an area that requires further investigation. In addition, data relating to PCO2 effects on oxygen uptake in larval and embryonic stages are also lacking. This is significant because it is well known that these early life stages are some of the most sensitive to environmental perturbations.

Elasmobranchs are cartilaginous fishes (sharks, skates, and rays) (Kok, Albert. Caribbean Reef Shark. Digital image. Wikimedia. N.p., n.d. Web. 23 Mar. 2018).

It is clear that there are many gaps in the literature regarding metabolic responses to increased PCO2. The general trend suggests that, in adult teleosts, at least, aerobic performance is mostly maintained. Although this may sound like good news, it is important to remember that more data and information is still needed and that the effects of increased PCO2 may affect fish populations in the long term and across generations.

Works Cited

Di Santo, V. (2015). Ocean acidification exacerbates the impacts of global warming on embryonic little skate, Leucoraja erinacea (Mitchill). Journal of experimental marine biology and ecology, 463, 72-78.

Di Santo, V. (2016). Intraspecific variation in physiological performance of a benthic elasmobranch challenged by ocean acidification and warming. Journal of Experimental Biology, 219(11), 1725-1733.

Green, L., & Jutfelt, F. (2014). Elevated carbon dioxide alters the plasma composition and behaviour of a shark. Biology letters, 10(9), 20140538.

Hannan, K. D., & Rummer, J. L. (2018). Aquatic acidification: a mechanism underpinning maintained oxygen transport and performance in fish experiencing elevated carbon dioxide conditions. Journal of Experimental Biology, 221(5), jeb154559.

Lüthi, D., Le Floch, M., Bereiter, B., Blunier, T., Barnola, J.-M., Siegenthaler, U., Raynaud, D., Jouzel, J., Fischer, H.,Kawamura, K. et al. (2008). High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present. Nature 453, 379-382. doi:10.1038/nature06949.

Evaluating Extinction Risk in Major Marine Taxa

By Olivia Schuitema, SRC intern

Over Earth’s history, there have been at least five mass extinctions in addition to other minor-scale extinctions (Bambach et al. 2004). The causes of such extinctions are varied, but many be associated with global climate variability (Doney et al. 2012). One article points to large-scale volcanism associated with global warming, acid rain and ocean acidification for the causes of extinctions (Bond et al. 2017). This is especially significant in recent years, because of the large and rapid increase in global temperatures (largely due to the burning of fossils fuels and deforestation) and corresponding varied changes in climate. Thus, in order to understand and predict future extinctions patterns, we must understand past ones.

The paleontological record (fossil record), gives much insight on these extinction events, allowing the present to look at past trends. In the effort to understand anthropogenic influence on modern marine biota, the fossil record can be analyzed and compared to the extant (living) groups (Carrasco et al. 2013). Thick fossil-rich marine sediments located around the world contain a plethora of information that can help prepare future extinction trends (Finnegan et al. 2015). These sediments (Figure 1) can give insight on particularly vulnerable taxa in potential danger of going extinct. Vulnerability among a population includes being threatened with a decline in numbers or genetic material, reduced fitness, or extinction (Dawso et al. 2011).

Fossils of various marine and terrestrial organisms are located in layers in the fossil record. The layers can give information on environmental conditions of the time and age of organisms (Wikimedia Commons).

A new study aimed to construct models of extinction risk and utilize them to evaluate baseline extinction vulnerabilities for some living marine taxa (Finnegan 2015). The article defines “extinction risk” as the probability of classifying fossil taxa as “extinct” based on its similarity to other extinct fossil taxa during the same time (Finnegan et al. 2015). The timeline used in the analysis was from the Neogene period to the Pleistocene period, encompassing about 23 million years in total. This time period was chosen to maximize faunal and geographic comparability (Finnegan et al. 2015). Some groups of organisms (taxa) found in this time interval are still living today and have similar geographical distributions as they did in the past. These similarities make it easier to compare marine taxa over varying conditions to help determine intrinsic risk. “Intrinsic risk” as used in the article, is the term for baseline vulnerability for marine taxa.

Six major marine taxonomic groups, including bivalves, gastropods, echinoids, sharks, mammals, and scleractinian corals were analyzed in this study (Finnegan et al. 2015). These groups were chosen for their relatively accurate representation of overall marine ecological, taxonomic, and functional diversity. The two best predictors for extinction risk are geographic range size and taxonomic identity (Finnegan et al. 2015). The predictors of extinction found in previous paleontological models (including geographic range size, latitude, etc.), were measured for the six marine taxa. Results indicate that the geographic area with the highest intrinsic risk was the tropics, especially the Indo-Pacific and the Western Atlantic (Finnegan et al. 2015). Similarly, another study highlights the increased extinction rates of North American mammals. Results showed a diversity crash in parts of North America during the Holocene Epoch (Carrasco et al. 2013). Although this mammalian extinction occurred later than the time period analyzed in the work of Finnegan et. al (2015), the geographic locations are similar, supporting the overall increasing extinction trend over time.

Another modeling system analyzed the hotspots for human activity and climate change velocity in contrast to the areas of high extinction risk of the six major marine genera (Finnegan et al. 2015). The results as seen in Figure 2, show that hotspots of anthropogenic influence and high climate change velocity overlap the areas of highest extinction risk (Finnegan et al. 2015), indicating a correlation between humans, climate change and extinction risk. The areas of overlap were mostly concentrated in the tropics and the subtropics. The tropics contain very high levels of biodiversity, providing habitat for unique species found nowhere else in the world. This is especially true for marine organisms. Conserving this diverse environment is important because of the many ecological services and economic benefits it provides.

Hotspots of anthropogenic impact and velocity of climate change overlaid on mean intrinsic risk (Finnegan et al. 2015).

The term “global warming” has evolved into the term “climate change” because of the new understanding of the changes in overall climate (weather patterns, natural disasters, sea level rise, etc.), and not solely an increase in global temperatures. Climate change has a variety of extinction-inducing mechanisms including ocean acidification, anoxia (lack of oxygen) and global warming (Bond et al. 2017). The variability of these factors puts stress on organisms, causing them to migrate or to die out if they cannot adapt quickly enough. Thus, the coupled effects of climate change and human activity on highly diverse environments can cause increased extinction vulnerabilities among taxa (Finnegan et al. 2015). This possible loss of biodiversity and evolutionary potential must be taken seriously (Dawson et al. 2011).

Works Cited

Bambach, R. K., Knoll, A. H., & Wang, S. C. (2004). Origination, extinction, and mass depletions of marine diversity. Paleobiology, 30(4), 522-542.

Bond, & Grasby. (2017). On the causes of mass extinctions. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 478, 3-29.

Carrasco, Marc A. (2013). The impact of taxonomic bias when comparing past and present species diversity. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 372, 130.

Dawson, T., Jackson, S., House, J., Prentice, I., & Mace, G. (2011). Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate. Science, 332(6025), 53-58.

Doney, S. C., Ruckelshaus, M., Duffy, J. E., Barry, J. P., Chan, F., English, C. A., … & Polovina, J. (2011). Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.

Finnegan, S., Anderson, S., Harnik, P., Simpson, C., Tittensor, D., Byrnes, J., . . . Pandolfi, J. (2015). Extinctions. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans. Science (New York, N.Y.), 348(6234), 567-70.

Adaptation or Extinction: the Necessity of Fish Reproductive Acclimation in the Face of Climate Change

By Trish Albano, SRC intern

In an ever-changing marine environment, organisms must respond to their surroundings in order to remain reproductively successful.  However, with the current rate of climate change predicted to raise sea surface temperatures by approximately 3°C by the year 2100 (Collins et al., 2013), species are faced with a choice: shift geographic range or gradually adapt to changes cross-generationally.  In fishes, reproductive regulation and temperature are innately intertwined.  Changes in environmental temperature have the ability to impact the hypothalamo-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis in the reproductive system of many species of fish.  This gland controls the regulation of reproductive hormones necessary for reproductive success following a temperature cue.  In a study at James Cook University in Australia, researchers aimed to evaluate if there was a difference in gene expression in adult spiny chromis damselfish (A. polyacanthus) (Image 1) that had different reproductive capabilities as a result of developmental and transgenerational exposure to increased temperature (Veilleux, Donelson, & Munday, 2018).

Image 1. Study species: spiny chromis damselfish (A. Polyanthus). Species of damselfish from the West Pacific (Source: Wikimedia Commons)

Overall, this study’s goal was to assess the potential for reproductive plasticity in the face of increased temperatures. In order to assess if damselfish had partially acclimated reproductive capability, the researchers evaluated gene expression in the fish using a step-wise transgenerational temperature treatment (Donelson et al., 2016) (Figure 1).  It was hypothesized that the expression of reproductive genes would be down-regulated in damselfish who were exposed to the same high temperature levels as their parents.  However, it was also hypothesized that the expression of genes in the step-wise temperature treatment (parents exposed to +1.5°C, offspring exposed to +3.0°C) would be similar to that of the control group (no temperature increase) due to partial acclimation of the reproductive system in response to elevated temperature.

Figure 1. Experimental design of the study showing the control group (no transgenerational temperature increase), developmental (+3.0 degrees C in offspring), step-wise (+1.5 degrees C in parent, + 3.0 degrees C in offspring) and transgenerational (+3.0 degrees C in parent and offspring). Duration of the experiment is shown in the gray bars on the left. (Source: Veilleux, Donelson, & Munday, 2018).

After completing the experiment, it was found that the step-wise treatment group had a comparable proportion of pairs that reproduced to the control group.  On the other hand, pairs that were exposed to an immediate +3.0°C temperature increase (transgenerational and developmental) had fewer and no pairs reproducing successfully.  The results of this experiment support the researcher’s hypothesis that partial reproductive acclimation to elevated temperatures would lead to more reproductive success.  If climate change trends continue to result in increasing environmental temperature, maintaining reproductive success is key to marine species taking the adaptation approach versus changing geographic range.

Works cited 

Collins M, Knutti R, Arblaster J, Dufresne JL, Fichefet T, Friedlingstein P, Gao X, Gutowski WJ, Johns T, Krinner G, et al. (2013) Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility. In Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, et al, eds. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and New York.

Crozier

Donelson JM, Wong M, Booth DJ, Munday PL (2016) Transgenerational plasticity of reproduction depends on rate of warming across gen- erations. Evol Appl 9: 1072–1081.

Veilleux HD, Donelson JM, Munday PL (2018) Reproductive gene expression in a coral reef fish exposed to increasing temperature across generations. Conserv Physiol 6(1): cox077; doi:10.1093/conphys/cox077.

 

Climate Change as Seen Through Atlantic Bluefin Tuna

By Olivia Schuitema, SRC intern

Climate change is the phenomenon in which global temperatures are rising due to an increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, largely resulting from burning fossil fuels and deforestation. The Earth’s ozone layer acts as a protective “blanket,” trapping warming greenhouse gases, such as CO2, in the Earth’s atmosphere. This “greenhouse effect” also affects the oceans; in the last 45 years, the mean ocean temperature in the upper 300m (where a majority of marine life live) has increased by 0.3°C (Muhling, 2011). Although this change seems small, even minor differences in temperature, salinity, and pH can affect organism and ecosystem success.

As atmospheric CO2 concentration increases, more CO2 dissolves into seawater and results in decreasing amounts of inorganic carbon in the ocean (Fraile, 2016). The inorganic carbon isotope is an important element in recycling nutrients throughout the ocean. Similarly, the ratio of stable oxygen isotopes in seawater can be related to the temperature and salinity of the water (Fraile, 2016), which can affect marine habitats. A recent study aiming to estimate CO2 uptake in the Mediterranean Sea over the past 20 years, suggests that evidence of climate change, spurring changes in the ratios of stable carbon and oxygen isotopes, can be seen in Atlantic bluefin tuna, Thunnus thynnus, otoliths. Otoliths are aragonite structures located in the inner ear of teleost fish that aid in balance and orientation (Fraile, 2016). As bluefin tuna age, they add new layers of aragonite on their otoliths, forming rings. The otolith layers are used similarly to ice cores and tree rings, in which they show environmental conditions, such as the amount of CO2, of the time period. In their first year of life, tuna are highly mobile and remain in surface waters of the Mediterranean Basin. Thus, the carbon and oxygen isotopes accumulated in the first year of life, shown in the central otolith layer (“otolith core”), are likely to reflect the seawater conditions of the Mediterranean Basin (Fraile, 2016).

Figure 1. The rings in fish otoliths can be used to determine fish age, NOAA

Researchers captured tuna of different sizes and measured their fork lengths (from the tip of the snout to the fork of caudal fin) in order to help determine their age. Otoliths were extracted from the tuna and cut in a cross-section to expose the otolith core (Fraile, 2016). Cores were powdered and analyzed for stable carbon and oxygen isotopes. Combining the anatomical age data and the otolith core data, a record of the annual amount of carbon and oxygen isotopes was compiled for the years 1989-2010. It was found that oceanic carbon and oxygen decreased in the studied years, inversely related to increasing atmospheric CO2 (Fraile, 2016). Decreasing amounts of inorganic carbon have negative impacts on biogeochemical cycling (cycling of nutrients, such as carbon, between the sediment, organisms and the water) in the ocean, leading to changes in environmental conditions. These changes could have cascading effects, affecting species on the organismal level and affecting populations throughout entire food chains.

Figure 2. Atlantic Bluefin Tuna, Thunnus thynnus, NOAA

Climate change can also lead to increasing ocean temperatures, which puts stress on marine organisms and causes degradation of marine habitats. Many fish, such as the Atlantic bluefin tuna, undergo physiological stress due to increase in seawater temperature, which impacts swimming abilities, spawning activities, egg hatching and larval growth (Muhling, 2015). A study conducted in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea aimed to gain further insight on the effects of climate change on tuna species through modeling systems (Muhling, 2015). Researchers applied ocean temperature fields with past and present data onto models of suitability (optimal conditions for survival) for the larval and adult stages of skipjack tuna and Atlantic bluefin tuna.

It was found that Atlantic bluefin tuna larva and adult survival decreased with increasing surface temperature (warmest temperatures in water column) and increased at deeper depths with cooler water (Muhling, 2015). This suggests that the temperate Atlantic bluefin tuna prefer to inhabit cooler waters and are negatively affected by warming temperatures. Conversely, tropical skipjack tuna larva and adults had higher survival rates at higher surface temperatures, indicating a preference for warmer temperatures. Future projections were also made, by using current tuna habitat suitability models with projected environmental trends due to climate change. By 2090, waters in the Gulf of Mexico will be highly unsuitable for both adult and larval stages of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Muhling, 2015). On the other hand, skipjack tuna adult and larvae suitability is projected to expand greatly, and possibly expand into bluefin tuna habitat in the future. As seen in this study, climate change can cause unbalanced changes in top predator ocean dynamics; some species like the skipjack tuna, thrive and have the potential to over dominate, while others, like the Atlantic bluefin tuna, are negatively impacted and can have a potentially reduced role in food webs.

Figure 3. Change in sea surface temperature 1901-2015, EPA

Global climatic patterns are also influenced by climate change. With increasing temperatures, there has been an increase in the frequency of droughts and heat waves (ex. California), and similarly, an increase in the number and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Caribbean (ex. Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017). According to a study conducted by analyzing Atlantic bluefin tuna vertical migrations with seasonal environmental conditions, tuna behavior is affected by ocean surface temperature (Bauer, 2017). During average seasonal temperatures, common bluefin tuna behavior involves periods of surfacing. However, data shows unusual deep diving intervals during thermal fronts, due to the increase in water surface temperature (Bauer, 2017).  Researchers hypothesize that increasing numbers of abnormal climate events can greatly affect the behavior of vertical migrators, such as sharks, sailfish and the Atlantic bluefin tuna (Bauer, 2017).

Rising global temperatures, largely due to anthropogenic influences, can cause a wide array of changes in the earth’s climate including extreme weather events, ocean acidification, and sea level rise. Systems in the marine environment, along with commercial and recreational fisheries, will also be adversely affected (Muhling, 2011). The effects of climate change will continue to intensify unless measures are taken to reduce the anthropogenic footprint on the earth.

References

Bauer, Fromentin, Demarcq, & Bonhommeau. (2017). Habitat use, vertical and horizontal behaviour of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea in relation to oceanographic conditions. Deep-Sea Research Part II, 141, 248-261.

Fraile, Arrizabalaga, Groeneveld, Kölling, Santos, Macías, . . . Rooker. (2016). The imprint of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on Atlantic bluefin tuna otoliths. Journal of Marine Systems, 158, 26-33.

Muhling, Liu, Lee, Lamkin, Roffer, Muller-Karger, & Walter. (2015). Potential impact of climate change on the Intra-Americas Sea: Part 2. Implications for Atlantic bluefin tuna and skipjack tuna adult and larval habitats. Journal of Marine Systems, 148, 1-13.

Muhling, B. A., Lee, S. K., Liu, Y. T., & Lamkin, J. (2011). Predicting the effects of climate change on bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) spawning habitat in the Gulf of Mexico. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68(6), 1051-1062.